Week 9: Sunday Picks

Gambling content has returned. Although I enjoy my occasional foray into “sports journalism,” this is really where I belong.

I got some positive and negative feedback on the last blog. Some of you guys loved the table, some of you wanted the rationale behind the picks.

Being a man of the people, you get both now. I’m feeling a perfect week here since I’m due for a big week.


The Ravens are coming off a bad division loss. They just lost their All-Pro left tackle Ronnie Stanley for the year to an ankle injury; All-Pro corner Marlon Humphrey isn’t playing because he got the Wuhan Bat Soup Plague; rookie right guard Tyre Phillips is also on IR… so the logical choice is the Ravens in a blood bath. I expect a big showing from the Ravens offense, spearheaded by Hollywood Brown and Lamar Jackson.


Good news for the Panthers is they finally get Christian McCaffery back. Bad news is the Chiefs are coming to town. The Panthers are better than people expected this year, but they aren’t quite on the level of a contender like the Chiefs. I think the Panthers end up making this a closer game than everyone expects, but the Chiefs win in the end.


Going to keep this short: the Bears offense is one of the most inept units in existence. Alleged offensive guru Matt Nagy is a complete idiot, and couple that with the fact the Bears line got crushed by COVID, I just don’t see this game going well for the Bears. Look for the Titans to win fairly easily.


It took a few weeks, but I am squarely back in the “don’t bet on the Falcons” camp. Falcons are 5-13 against the spread at home (4-10 as a favorite) and the Broncos are 7-2 against the spread on the road in their last 9 games. All the data suggests the Broncos are going to win, and I will never advocate putting another cent on the Falcons, so go Broncos.


Since a surprising Week 1 upset against the Colts, the Jags have been an absolutely miserable team. The Texans have been disappointing as well, but they just aren’t on the same level of bad as Jacksonville. Look for a big Texans win, and the Jags to continue to tank.


This is a coin-flip game for me. Two teams that are terrible, but I’m going to go with the trends here. Giants are 4-0 against the spread as a road underdog this year, and they’re 16-3 against the spread in their last 19 road games overall. Take the Giants, but don’t watch the game or you’ll die of boredom before you can collect on your win.


Seahawks travel well. They’re 12-4-2 against the spread on the road in their last 16, and the Bills have been in a complete tail spin since a hot start. Take the Seahawks across the board; they’ll win this going away.


Raiders have been good this year, but I’m making a straight-up, data-driven pick here. Raiders are 0-13 in straight-up, coming-off-a-road-win, games. All things considered, I think this is a fairly even game, hence the spread being 0, so I’ll stick with the trends and hope for the best.


AFC East seems to be wide open and Fitzmagic kept the seat warm for Tua to come in and push the Dolphins over the top. Although I have been a believer in the Cardinals all year, I think you have to go with Tua and the Dolphins here.


Am I salty over last Sunday? Yes. However, this is a completely unbiased pick by me. The Steelers won’t go undefeated this year; not a knock on them as they are clearly a good team, but going undefeated takes more than being good, it takes a ton of luck as well. Covering a 15-point spread is rare, so you’re not taking any kind of crazy risk. The money line offers a massive payout if the Cowboys pull off the upset, and you get little reward if you were to bet on the Steelers. Take the Cowboys, and hope for the best.


Michael Thomas is finally coming back and I think that is the difference here. The Saints are 8-0 straight in the back-half of back-to-back road games, and they’re 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 road games. Bucs are also 2-7-3 against the spread in in their last 12 home games, so even more reason of a reason to ride the trend and hope the Saints pull this one out.  

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