I took the Thursday night snoozefest off because I didn’t feel comfortable advising anyone to spend money gambling on that absolutely atrocious product we were given.
I am down for the year, but not out.
I know I say this every week, but eventually, I will be right — and this is going to be the week we get things right.
A small change to this week’s blog: In the past, I have done everything as a straight, one-unit bet; this week, we’re going to spice it up a bit, and I will not only be giving my picks, but putting multiple units on a game.
YTD Record: 115-97-7
YTD Units: -15.19
*All odds based on Bovada 10/24*
BUFFALO BILLS @ NEW YORK JETS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Bills -10.5
Money line: Bills (-580), Jets (+390)
The Bills are licking their lips right here. They’re coming off bad back-to-back showings against the Titans and Chiefs, and are paying a visit to the lowly New York Jets. There is no doubt in my mind that the Bills win in an absolute bloodbath, and take out their frustrations from two bad games. No data here; it’s very clear the Jets have given up and the Bills need to win to hold off the Dolphins for the division lead.
PICKS: Bills -10.5 (2 Units), Bills ML (2 Units), Over 46
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Saints -7
Money line: Saints (-330), Panthers (+265)
Ultimately, I think the Saints win this game and it’s going to be relatively high-scoring. The data backs me up here, as the Saints have hit the over in all five games this year. The trend here that I think we can cash in on, is the spread. New Orleans is viewed as having one of the best home field advantages in the NFL, and rightfully so, since the Saints are 23-8 at home since 2017 — the second-best home record during that span. So, Saints and the points, right? Wrong; in that same span, the Saints are actually only 14-17 against the spread at home. The Panthers have shown they are a solid team this year, and especially since this can be viewed as a Teddy Bridgewater revenge game and it’s a divisional matchup, I think the smart pick here is for the Panthers to cover, but the Saints to ultimately walk away with the win.
PICKS: Panthers +7, Saints ML (2 Units), Over 50.5 (2 units)
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ CINCINNATI BENGALS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Browns -3
Money line: Browns (-180), Bengals (+160)
Since November 15, 2015m the Browns are 0-11 in the second-half of back-to-back road games. The Browns are coming off a beatdown at Heinz Field after previously winning four straight, and I think this game proves what we already know: the Browns are still the Browns. Look for a similar high-scoring performance like we saw in these teams’ first matchup, but with the Bengals coming out on top this time. I’m going big on this as my upset pick.
PICKS: Bengals +3 (3 Units), Bengals ML (3 Units) Over 50.5
DALLAS COWBOYS @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: WFT -1
Money line: WFT (-120), Cowboys (+100)
I’m going to keep this short and sweet. Despite how terrible the Cowboys looked last week, Washington is worse. The Cowboys win, not because they’re good, but because Washington sucks. Vegas is giving us a gift here; might as well cash in.
PICKS: Cowboys +1, Cowboys ML, Over 45
DETROIT LIONS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Falcons -2.5
Money line: Falcons (-135), Lions (+115)
Normally, I do not advise putting money on the Falcons. However, I think it is now safe to bet on them after notorious money thief Dan Quinn was fired. Here is some data for you: the Falcons are undefeated in games not coached by Dan Quinn since the beginning of the 2015 season. They have an average margin of victory of 17 in that same span. Smart money is on Atlanta here.
PICKS: Falcons -2.5, Falcons ML, Over 55
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Packers -3.5
Money line: Packers (-200), Texans (+200)
This is going to be one of the better games played Sunday, and thanks to some analytical research I can tell you exactly how it’s going to end up. Statistical trends tell you take the Packers and the under here, and I’m going to trust the numbers. Packers are 7-0 straight up coming off a road game and 2-7-1 against the over since November 2019. Since December 29, 2019, the Texans are 0-6 against the spread as an underdog, and since December 13, 2015, they are 2-7 against the spread as a home underdog. I’m going to trust the numbers here.
PICKS: Packers -3.5 (2 units), Packers ML (2 units), Under 57
PITTSBURGH STEELERS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (SUNDAY 1:00 PM)
Spread: Titans -1
Money line: Titans (-120), Steelers (+100)
The Titans are on a mission since being decimated by COVID-19, and the Steelers are undefeated but untested. I think this game is going to come down to how well the Steelers are able to adapt to life without Devin Bush, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. Dupree and Watt will give the Titans issues passing the ball, but no Bush means the middle of the field is open for Derrick Henry to extend some runs into the second level. I think the Titans come away with a win in a close scoring low game.
PICKS: Titans -1, Titans ML, Under 51
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (SUNDAY 4:05 PM)
Spread: Bucs -4
Money line: Bucs (-220), Raiders (+180)
Had I been making these picks prior to Thursday, I would’ve bet heavily on the Raiders. However, the Raiders offensive line has been destroyed by COVID, and the Bucs defense is just too good to have four of your five starters missing. I think the Bucs win an relatively low-scoring game here, and it’s unfortunate the pandemic is robbing us of a better matchup.
PICKS: Bucs -4, Bucs ML, Under 52
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (SUNDAY 4:25 PM)
Spread: Chargers -7.5
Money line: Chargers (-380), Jags (+290)
The Jags had a great Week 1 showing, and since then, have shown what happens when you trade away anyone on your roster with talent prior to the season. However, the Chargers are 0-7 against the spread since December 9, 2018 as a home favorite, and are 0-5 against the over as a home favorite since September 22, 2019. “Fitzmagic” may have died this week, but did it die just for a rebirth of “Minshew Mania?” Hopefully — take the Jags.
PICKS: Jags +7.5 (2 units), Jags ML (2 units), Under 49
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS @ DENVER BRONCOS (SUNDAY 4:25 PM)
Spread: Chiefs -7.5
Money line: Chiefs (-380), Broncos (+290)
Chiefs win, Chiefs cover, but the interesting play I have for you here is the under. As a home underdog, the Broncos are 2-9 against the over since December 10, 2017. The Chiefs are 0-4 against the over in road games since December 8, 2019. 44 is a relatively low point total, but I think you take the under here.
PICKS: Chiefs -7.5, Chiefs ML, Under 44
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (SUNDAY 4:25 PM)
Spread: Pats -2.5
Money line: Pats (-145), 49ers (-145)
The trends would tell you that the 49ers are 5-0 against the spread in their last five road games. The trends don’t include Bill Belichick at home, though. I think the Pats and the over has to be the play here. Since 2003, the Pats are 43-19 against the spread coming off a loss, and I just can’t see that trend changing here. Take the Pats and the over.
PICKS: Pats -2.5, Pats ML, Over 44.5
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (SUNDAY 8:20 PM)
Spread: Seattle -3.5
Money line: Seattle (-180), Cardinals (+160)
Sunday night upset? Sadly, I don’t think so. The Seahawks are 7-0-1 against the spread in their last eight road games where they are favored, and 12-3-2 against the spread in their last 17 road games overall. As much as I would like to see the Cardinals pull one out here, I just don’t see it happening.
PICKS: Seattle -3.5, Seattle ML, Over 55
Thank you for reading, and hopefully I’m back Monday with a perfect record this weekend.