Hello again. If you have been following my picks since the beginning of the year and are reading this, then congratulations; you haven’t lost your home, and you probably had good savings habits.
I picked up Week 6 exactly where I left off in Week 4: poorly. I saw how well kidnapping me and putting me to work did for Michael Pallas’ Jets content, so I’ve taken a page out of his playbook. I have kidnapped NZI Data Expert Will, and have him locked in a room in my house, crunching numbers.
If I go 6-0 tonight, I will release him; anything less than perfection, and he stays until we get this right.
Week 6 Record: 17-19
Week 6 Units: -5.6
YTD Record: 112-94-7
YTD Units: -14.41
*All odds based on Bovada 10/19*
Spread: Chiefs -5.5
Money line: Chiefs (-250), Bills (+210)
We get a potential playoff preview at this odd Monday night 5:00 PM EST slot. The Bills are coming off a short week where they got their doors blown off by the Titans, and the Chiefs are coming off a shocking loss to the Raiders. I think any choice other than the Chiefs here is wrong, and my data consultant agrees. Since November 18th of last season, the Chiefs are 12-2 against the spread, and 10-2 in that same span as favorites. On top of that, their last Monday night showing was an impressive beatdown of the Baltimore Ravens, who also happen to have a mobile QB on a defense/run-centric team. I think you’ll see the Chiefs have similar success against Buffalo, and look for a pretty convincing win by Patty Mahomes and company in Buffalo tonight.
Will’s data has also shown me a pretty interesting trend with the Bills. Despite the Bills having hit the over in all five games this season, the data actually suggests the under is the play here. Going back to Week 13 of 2018, the Bills are 1-10 as underdogs against the over. 55 is a pretty high over to begin with, so it gives me even more confidence in this data-driven pick.
PICKS: Chiefs -5.5, Chiefs ML, Under 55
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (Monday 8:15pm)
Spread: Cowboys -1
Money line: Cowboys (-120), Cardinals (+100)
Going to start this off with a generic “thoughts and prayers” to Dak Prescott, because nobody likes to see injuries, especially for a guy who is fighting for his first big payday. That said, I think the Cowboys are still going to win the dumpster-fire NFC East, and the Andy Dalton signing is looking like one of the smartest insurance policy signings of the offseason. People forget that, when Dalton had decent weapons and a competent run game behind him in Cincinnati, he was actually a competent QB. I was very big on the Cardinals leading up to the season, and while I still feel like they can compete, I think I bought too much into the hype. Kyler is still young, and the already-questionable defense just lost Chandler Jones for the year.
Although the Cowboys are 0-5 against the spread this season, I think we see that change. My research assistant Will was able to determine that Dallas has hit the over in all three home games this year, and are 14-4-1 in all home games since 2018 against the over. So, I’m going to side with data here and say the over is the play.
PICKS: Cowboys -1, Cowboys ML, Over 55
Hopefully, we get back on track with a 6-0 showing tonight. And since Congress is too busy fighting over the next round of stimulus packages, I would be more than happy to step in and provide for you during this pandemic.