After a week off, I have finally returned to the gambling sphere.
I am sure the seven of you who religiously read my picks, looking to donate some of your money to your local bookie, were wondering where I was, and I was tied up… literally.
Some of you may know Michael Pallas. He is our Jets writer at NZI, and has dedicated his life to not only getting Adam Gase fired, but to improving the Jets.
Feel free to check out Michael’s recent work, because it’s great.
The reason it’s so great is because he locked me in his basement and forced me, not only to research dirt on Adam Gase, but also to simulate 100,000 seasons of Madden NFL 21 with different acquisitions for the Jets.
Needless to say, I will never question Michael’s dedication to his craft, but he will be hearing from my lawyers.
In order to fund my top-notch legal team, I am going to kill it this week and get rid of my year-to-date deficit.
YTD Record: 95-75-7
YTD Units: -8.81
*All odds based on Bovada 10/16*
*Picks written Friday 10/16 prior to any impeding COVID outbreaks*
ATLANTA FALCONS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Vikings -4
Money line: Vikings (-210), Falcons (+175)
Week 6 kicks off with two very disappointing teams, but America loves a redemption story, and I think we’re going to witness the beginning of the Falcons redemption. “28-3” absolutely destroyed this franchise, and the firing of Dan Quinn is the first step forward in rebuilding this team. I like to make my picks with a mix of trends and gut feelings, but I’m throwing trends out the window here. I have long lived by the “don’t bet on the Falcons” mantra, and just like Dan Quinn, that is out the window. Falcons win, and get back on track.
PICKS: Falcons +4, Falcons ML, Over 54
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Ravens -8
Money line: Ravens (-380), Eagles (+290)
The Eagles are an absolute disaster, and are still in contention in the dumpster fire known as the NFC East. This is a really simple game for me. The Bengals tied the Eagles two weeks ago, and then the Ravens blew the doors off the Bengals last week. Philly is finally allowing fans to attend games, and there will be loud boos and calls for Jalen Hurts when all is said and done. Ravens by a million.
PICKS: Ravens -8, Ravens ML, Over 47.5
CHICAGO BEARS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Panthers -1
Money line: Panthers (-115), Bears (-105)
Big Dick Nick vs Third Leg Teddy… the match-up we all needed. Matt Rhule has proven to be a competent first-year head coach, but the offense has been somewhat anemic, given the fact Christian McCaffery has been injured. As of today (Friday), it looks like McCaffery isn’t going to play, and I think that gives the Bears a huge advantage.
PICKS: Bears +1, Bears ML, Under 44.5
CINCINATTI BENGALS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Colts +8
Money line: Colts (-400), Bengals (+300)
I view this as sort of a trap game. The Bengals have looked good, aside from last week in Baltimore, and although I think it was a reality check, there are still people who feel the Bengals are anything more than a bottom-of-the-barrel team. This isn’t a knock on Joe Burrow, who seems to not only have the physical talent, but the mental make-up to maybe turn this team around, but they still have a long way to go. The Colts have been a sneakily-good team this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and I think that we see a low-scoring but convincing win from the Colts here.
PICKS: Colts +8, Colts ML, Under 46.5
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Steelers -3.5
Money line: Steelers (-200), Browns (+170)
The Browns are 4-1, and for some reason, people are forgetting a major thing about this team… THEY’RE THE BROWNS. Vegas has gone crazy here, only having Pitt at home as 3.5-favorite and I am scratching my head as to why. The only good team the Browns have played has completely blown their doors off, and Sunday will be no different. Pains me to say nice things about Pitt, but the offense is clicking and the defense has been solid. Although I don’t think they’re as good as the record shows, I am confident that they are going to beat the shit out of the Browns.
PICKS: Steelers -3.5, Steelers ML, Over 51
DENVER BRONCOS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Patriots -9
Money line: Patriots (-460), Broncos (+330)
Melvin Gordon just got popped for DUI, Drew Lock isn’t 100%, and a bunch of key pieces are missing on the defense and offense. It’s looking like a lost season in Denver. The Pats couldn’t stop Patrick Mahomes or COVID, but I think they will stop the Broncos from winning this week.
PICKS: Pats -9, Pats ML, Over 44.5
DETROIT LIONS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Lions -3.5
Money line: Lions (-170), Jags (+150)
“Minshew Mania” died off, and this is the revival week. The Lions defense is ranked 29th, the Lions passing game is ranked 21th, rushing game is ranked 24th… long story short, the Lions suck. The Jags aren’t a world-beater, but I think they’re going to win.
PICKS: Jags +3.5, Jags ML, Under 54.5
HOUSTON TEXANS @ TENNESSEE TITANS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Titans -3.5
Money line: Titans (-200), Texans (+170)
Here, we have a match-up of two teams that have recently rid themselves of a plague. The Titans have cured themselves of COVID-19, and the Texans cured themselves of the disease known as Bill O’Brien. The Texans are 1-3 in their last four games in Nashville, and I think that trend continues. The Titans are playing with a chip on their shoulder, and somehow, have found a way to spin potentially ruining the NFL season to being the victims. Mike Vrabel is a master of bulletin board material, and I look for the Titans to ride the hate wave to a win on a short week.
PICKS: Titans -3.5, Titans ML, Under 53.5
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ NEW YORK GIANTS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Giants -2.5
Money line: Giants (-145), Washington (+125)
I have been saying for weeks that the Giants are due for a win, and I think this is the opportunity. A match-up of two terrible NFC East teams doesn’t need much of a breakdown, so I’m just going to go with the home team that’s less embarrassing to the league and hope for the best.
PICKS: Giants -2.5, Giants ML, Over 43
NEW YORK JETS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Spread: Dolphins -9.5
Money line: Dolphins (-440), Jets (+320)
As part of my negotiated release from Michael Pallas’ basement, I promised to pick against the Jets for the rest of the year. Not much of a commitment because, barring any kind of forfeits due to COVID, the Jets are going 0-16. Leave it to the Jets to ruin an elite QB like Joe Flacco’s comeback story.
PICKS: Dolphins -9.5, Dolphins ML, Over 47
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANNERS (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Spread: Packers -1
Money line: Packers (-120), Bucs (+100)
This game opened with the Bucs favored by 3, and the line has moved to Packers -1 because of the money flooding in on the Packers. Brady is 2-1 against Rodgers, but Rodgers is playing at an MVP level right now and he’s getting his favorite target Davante Adams back. I think the Packers win pretty easily here.
PICKS: Packers -1, Packers ML, Over 55.5
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ers (Sunday 8:20 PM)
Spread: Rams -3.5
Money line: Rams (-170), 49ers (+150)
The 49ers have been absolutely demolished by injury. Before the season, I’m sure a lot of people were circling this as a great match-up that could have playoff implications, but that just isn’t the case anymore. The Rams have gone under the radar so far this year; their only loss was at the hands of the Bills, and they overcame a 28-3 lead to make that a one-score game. I think the Rams win easily here, and we can sit and be mad about injuries ruining what previously looked like a great match-up.
PICKS: Rams -3.5, Rams ML, Under 51.5
We have a doubleheader Monday night, unless JohnnyBSkol kidnaps me to help him get first-reply to Kay Adams (definitely do not type ‘from:JohnnyBSkol HeyKayAdams’ into your Twitter search bar) — I will have those picks up Monday afternoon.