Week 4: Monday Night Special – Chiefs-Patriots and Packers-Falcons

If I were to pick one word to describe Sunday it would have to be… YIKES. After a 3-0 showing for me on Thursday night, things went completely off the rails. The thing with gambling is that you only lose if you stop, so I’m just setting myself up for a comeback here on Monday.

Week 4 Record: 16-20-3
Week 4 Units: -8.58
YTD Record: 92-72-7
YTD Units: -7.35

*All odds based on Bovada 10/5*


Spread: Chiefs -11
Money line: Chiefs (-650), Pats (+425)
O/U: 49.5

I initially had this game picked on Sunday as a Pats upset win, and then COVID happened and the game was pushed to tonight, and Cam Newton will not be under center. I am still taking the Pats to cover here, but the Chiefs end up winning. Since taking over as head coach of the Chiefs in 2013, Andy Reid is an impressive 24-7 in games where the Chiefs are favored by more than 7 points; however, in those 31 games, they are a lackluster 10-20-1 against the spread. Factor in Bill Belichick, and I think we have a closer game than Vegas anticipates, but Stidham/Hoyer just won’t be enough to pull off the upset.

PICKS: Pats +11, Chiefs ML, Over 49.5

Chiefs Team Total: Over 30.5 (-115)
Pats Team Total: Over 18.5 (-115)


Spread: Packers -7 (+105), Falcons +7 (-125)
Money line: Packers (-290), Falcons (+240)
O/U: 57

There are some absolutes in life. Death; taxes; and if you put money on the Falcons, they will lose in spectacular fashion. 28-3 ruined this franchise. Since the 2017 season, the Falcons are 22-31 against the spread; in that span, only Cleveland has been worse. No matter what metrics you look at (favorite, underdog, home, away), the Falcons are 0.500 or worse against the spread. The Packers look good, the Falcons look terrible, and I am confident in saying that trend will continue.

Picks: Packers -7, Packers ML, Over 57

Let’s hope Monday is better than Sunday and we can make a dent in Sunday’s massacre. Gambling is about winning the long-term war, not the short-term battle.

(Editor’s Note: That was weirdly deep, Drew. Wow.)

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