Guess who’s back? Drew the Gambling Sharp has returned.
Although I find Will Moody a repulsive human being, I have taken a page out of his book with some data here, and last week, I started off 3-0, I finished that week 31-17-1 and +5.92 units for the week. I nailed all three picks on Thursday, so take that as a sign to bet the house on my Sunday picks.
Week 4 Record: 3-0
Week 4 Units: +2.82
YTD Record: 79-52-4
YTD Units: +4.05
*All odds below based on Bovada 10/2/2020*
ARIZONA CARDINALS @ CAROLINA PANTHERS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Cardinals -3.5
Money line: Cardinals (-175), Panthers (+155)
The Cardinals are coming off a horrible showing against the Lions, and you’re seeing this reflected in the odds here. I have been high on Arizona all year, and my feelings on them having an outside shot at the NFC West have not changed. I look at this as a kind of get-right game for them. The Panthers are scrappy and will definitely fight, but I think you see the Cardinals come away with a fairly convincing victory here.
PICKS: Cardinals -3.5, Cardinals ML, Over 51
BALTIMORE RAVENS @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Ravens -14
Money line: Ravens (-1000), Washington (+600)
I hate picking games like this. The Ravens got embarrassed at home on Monday Night Football against the Chiefs. After a decent showing in Week 1, Washington has come back down to Earth. There is no doubt in my mind that the Ravens win, and the Ravens win easily. The issue becomes the spread being so high; under normal circumstances, I feel like taking anyone +14 is free money, but within the context of this game, I think you have to go heavy on the Ravens.
PICKS: Ravens -14, Ravens ML, Over 45.5
CLEVELAND BROWNS @ DALLAS COWBOYS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Cowboys -4.5
Money line: Cowboys (-220), Browns (+180)
This game confuses me. I don’t trust the Cowboys; I think they’re a pretty good team but they always find themselves in close games and playing down to competition. On the other hand, you have the Browns, who are the Browns. I think Vegas is playing mind games here, trying to trick me into picking the Browns, and I will not fall for it. Cowboys win; book it.
PICKS: Cowboys -4.5, Cowboys ML, Under 56
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ CHICAGO BEARS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Colts -2.5
Money line: Colts (-130), Bears (+110)
Nick Foles taking over at QB for the Bears is huge here. Foles may not be the best QB in the NFL, but unlike Mitch Trubisky, he seems to have this innate ability to step in and win games with a good supporting cast. The Bears defense is top notch and there are good enough weapons on offense for Foles to potentially step in and make a run. I do not trust the Colts, and Philip Rivers under constant pressure means a lot of turnovers.
PICKS: Bears +2.5, Bears ML, Over 43
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS @ CINCINATTI BENGALS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Bengals -3
Money line: Bengals (-155), Jags (+135)
We have our weekly installment of Vegas overreaction this week, and it gives us a great opportunity to cash in on a poorly-handicapped game. Joe Burrow is exciting, and I think the Bengals made a smart choice in drafting him. That said, the Bengals are terrible in so many facets of the game, that I don’t see them beating the Jags. This might be the rebirth of “Minshew Mania.”
PICKS: Jags +3, Jags ML, Over 49.5
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS @ TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Bucs -7
Money line: Bucs (-320), Chargers (+260)
It’s too soon to judge Justin Herbert as a QB, but it’s pretty clear he is at least a competent QB. Where that comes into play is, the Bucs are a pretty heavy favorite here, and although I think they ultimately win the game, I think it’ll be much closer than the spread indicates. Look for a Bucs win, but not a blowout.
PICKS: Chargers +7, Bucs ML, Over 43
MINNESOTA VIKINGS @ HOUSTON TEXANS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Texans -3.5
Money line: Texans (-180), Vikings (+160)
The “Texans are due” theory didn’t pan out so well last week, and the Vikings are a complete train wreck right now. I don’t trust either offensive line to contain the other’s pass rush, and I feel like we’re in for an ugly game where Deshaun Watson and Kirk Cousins spend four quarters running for their lives. Coming off the “COVID Bowl” and the limitations placed on an already-shaky Vikings team this week in preparation, I think the smart play here is to go with the Texans.
PICKS: Texans -3.5, Texans ML, Under 53.5
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ DETROIT LIONS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Saints -4.5
Money line: Saints (-220), Lions (+180)
The Saints have been terrible the last two weeks, but Michael Thomas is coming back and I view this as a get-right game for them. Since Drew Brees came to New Orleans in 2006, the Saints are 53-30 coming off a loss (third-best in the NFL over that stretch) and 50-33 against the spread. I don’t think there is any doubt in my mind they win this game, and the silver lining is, although the O/U is fairly high at 54, the Lions seem competent enough to at least put up points.
PICKS: Saints -4.5, Saints ML, Over 54
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS @ MIAMI DOLPHINS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Seahawks -7
Money line: Seattle (-300), Dolphins (+250)
Russell Wilson is off to his usual first-half MVP campaign. He’ll inevitably fall short, but the Seahawks have been clicking on all cylinders offensively lately, which is a good sign for the win and the over. The thing with the Seahawks is, they tend to get into these early-season shootouts with bad teams; sprinkle in a bit of “Fitzmagic” and I think the 7-point spread is a bit too high.
PICKS: Dolphins +7, Seahawks ML, Over 54
NEW YORK GIANTS @ LOS ANGELES RAMS (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Spread: Rams -13.5
Money line: Rams (-800), Giants (+500)
The good news for the Giants is, they aren’t the worst team whose home stadium is MetLife. The bad news for the Giants is, they suck. I think they’re locked in a race for the #1 pick with the Jets, and at some point, they’ll probably screw it up and win a few games — but this won’t be the week that happens. Again, with big spreads like this, I tend to go with the underdog. Garbage time has lost me enough bets to know that winning a game by 14 seems easy on paper, but doesn’t play out that way very often. Look for the Giants to get slaughtered, but punch in a few garbage-time TDs and cover.
PICKS: Giants +13.5, Rams ML, Over 48
BUFFALO BILLS @ LAS VEGAS RAIDERS (Sunday 4:25pm)
Spread: Bills -3.5
Money line: Bills (-170), Raiders (+150)
The Bills are a good team, but the blown 28-3 lead last week makes me think they’re prime for an upset. The Raiders got their doors blown off in New Englandlast week, but took out the favored Saints in their home opener. It’s football, and the best team doesn’t always win. The Raiders aren’t a huge underdog here, but I think the smart play is to go with Vegas.
PICKS: Raiders +3.5, Raiders ML, Over 52.5
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS (Sunday 8:20pm)
Spread: 49ers -7
Money line: 49ers (-320), Eagles (+260)
The Eagles have to be one of the most disappointing teams of 2020 so far, and I think that disappointment continues. The 49ers are dealing with injuries, but when you just come off tying the Bengals, you’re not going to get any respect from me. I look for the Eagles to lose in embarrassing fashion here, and Carson Wentz to find himself amidst a second QB controversy with Jalen Hurts waiting in the wings, should he put up another pathetic display.
PICKS: 49ers -7, 49ers ML, Over 46
That’s it for Sunday’s games. Check in on Monday for an updated Week 4 record, Monday Night picks, and maybe some more “gambling-for-dummies” content.