Week 3: Monday Night Football Special – Ravens vs. Chiefs

Week 3 is almost in the books. Wasn’t as good as Week 2 for me, but I was able to recover from my 0-3 Thursday Night Football performance with a 24-17-1 showing, which puts me net-positive for the year, units-wise, and hitting about 55% of my picks.

I am going to run my picks a little different for Monday Night Football this week. So far, I have been treating my picks as single, straight bets on individual odds, but I’m going to throw in some prop bets and a parlay as a bonus here.

I’m looking to really cash in on what some are considering the game of the year tonight.

Week 3 Record: 24-20-1
Week 3 Units: +1.72
YTD Record: 75-50-4
YTD Units: +2.32

*All odds based on Bovada 9/28*

*NZI Preview from Garrison Funk (Degenerate Chiefs Staff Writer)*

Spread: Ravens -3
Money line: Ravens (-155), Chiefs (+135)
O/U: 55

I am sitting here once again angry that, due to COVID-19, I will be watching this game at home, instead of from my seats in 237 with a Sunday’s Best in hand. This is a big test for both teams, both coming in 2-0, with the Ravens coming off a decisive win against the Texans and the Chiefs sneaking out an OT win against the Chargers.

As a Ravens fan, it’s hard for me to write something about the Chiefs not looking as good as they did in the past and not have it come across biased, but here we are. We’re two games in and the Ravens haven’t missed a beat, while the Chiefs have definitely not looked the same. I think this is a big statement game for the Ravens; since Lamar Jackson has taken over at QB, this has been the one match-up they haven’t been able to win, and I think that changes tonight. I’m not looking for a Ravens blowout, but I think it’ll be an easier win than most expect. The interesting play here is the under. Since drafting Lamar Jackson in 2018, the Ravens have only hit the over in 6-of-17 games where they were home favorites. The thing with the Ravens and the over is, given their recent offensive success, the over is typically very high, with Vegas expecting people to blindly expect a track meet every time they take the field.

There is no fun in betting the under, but there is money, and money talks.

PICKS: Ravens -3, Ravens ML, Under 55


Parlay: Ravens -3, Under 55 (+257)
Ravens 1Q -0.5 (-110)
Ravens Team Total Over 29.5 (-110)
Lamar Jackson Over 2 TD Passes (+110)

Author’s Note: I have a special response blog ready to go for a certain fraudulent “stats” guy tomorrow, and once he’s out of the picture, hopefully we’ll return to normally scheduled content.

Leave a Reply