Week 3 is not off to a good start.
I doubted the Jags Week 1 and they burned me. I jumped on the Minshew Mania bandwagon for Week 3, and they burned me.
Every week, I’m destined to have a dud where I go 0-3, so now that I’ve gotten it out of my system, we should hit big on Sunday.
Week 3 Record: 0-3
Week 3 Units: -3
YTD Record: 51-33-3
YTD Units: -2.4
*All odds below based on Bovada 9/26*
CHICAGO BEARS @ ATLANTA FALCONS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Falcons -3
Money line: Falcons (-175), Bears (+155)
I have seen enough of the 2020 Atlanta Falcons to know that, despite 10-of-11 starters on offense being former first-round picks, they are not a good football team. Nobody loses games in spectacular fashion like “Matty Ice” and the Falcons, and I think we’re going to see another instance of this on Sunday. Do I like Mitch Trubisky? No, but at this point I trust him more than I trust the Falcons putting up points.
PICKS: Bears +3, Bears ML, Under 47.5
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Eagles -4
Money line: Eagles (-200), Bengals (+170)
I think this is a huge get-right game for Carson Wentz. Although I don’t think the Eagles are a particularly good team, I do think they are much better than they’ve shown Weeks 1 and 2. The Bengals are better than last year, but they’re still another year of high draft picks away from making any kind of real noise. I think Wentz has a big game, and the Eagles win comfortably, but you’ll still see flashes of what Joe Burrow can do.
PICKS: Eagles -4, Eagles ML, Over 47.5
HOUSTON TEXANS @ PITTSBURGH STEELERS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Steelers -4
Money line: Steelers (-210), Texans (+175)
This is an interesting game. The Texans have looked horrible in their first two games, but they also played the reigning Super Bowl Champs and the reigning MVP. The Steelers are 2-0 but they’ve limped into two wins against the Giants and the banged-up Broncos. I think Vegas is giving us a gift here. Hammer the Texans.
PICKS: Texans +4, Texans ML, Over 46
LAS VEGAS RAIDERS @ NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Pats -6
Money line: Pats (-250), Raiders (+210)
There are two times you NEVER bet against the Patriots: first is coming off a bye, where the Pats are 25-4 overall and 18-10-1 against the spread since 2003; second is coming off a loss, where they are 49-11 overall and 42-18 against the spread since 2003. Yeah, the Patriots have undergone a ton of change in the past year, but there is one constant: Bill Belichick, who I am not going to bet against here, despite how good the Raiders looked last Monday night.
PICKS: Pats -6, Pats ML, Over 47
LOS ANGELES RAMS @ BUFFALO BILLS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Bills -1.5
Money line: Bills (-120), Rams (EVEN)
This is definitely the marquee matchup of the 1:00 PM games on Sunday. The Rams have looked closer to what they were in 2018 and the Bills are a good team, but Buffalo still has some questions to answer. I think this game is going to come down to Josh Allen, and with the way he’s been playing, it’s hard to bet against him.
PICKS: Bills -1.5, Bills ML, Over 47
SAN FRANCISCO 49ers @ NEW YORK GIANTS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: 49ers -3.5
Money line: 49ers (-180), Giants (+160)
The 49ers are missing George Kittle, Jimmy Garoppolo, Raheem Mostert, Tevin Coleman and Dee Ford for Sunday’s game. The Giants are bad, but these are pretty key pieces to the offense that won’t be playing, and Dee Ford will certainly be missed on the pass rush. I think the Giants are poised to steal a game here. Despite their 0-2 record, they have been competitive in both games, and even though they’re missing Saquon Barkley, I think there are just too many injuries for the 49ers to successfully overcome.
PICKS: Giants +3.5, Giants ML, Over 42.5
TENNESSEE TITANS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Titans -3
Money line: Titans (-145), Vikings (+125)
The Vikings are one of the most disappointing teams of 2020 so far. Kirk Cousins isn’t afraid of COVID, but he’s afraid of throwing the ball to his own team and scoring points. The Titans have picked up where they left off last year; they won’t blow you out, but they won’t make mistakes and they’ll make the opponent’s mistakes hurt.
PICKS: Titans -3, Titans ML, Under 49.5
WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (Sunday 1:00 PM)
Spread: Browns -7
Money line: Browns (-320), WAS (+260)
Vegas is giving us free money here. I apologize for the racism, but are the artists-formerly-known-as the Redskins a good team? No, but neither are the Browns. The Browns got their doors blown off Week 1 and barely survived the Bengals Week 2. I think Washington steals a game here.
PICKS: Washington +7, Washington ML, Over 45
CAROLINA PANTHERS @ LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Spread: Chargers -6.5
Money line: Chargers (-280), Panthers (+230)
All it took was a team doctor to attempt to murder Tyrod Taylor, and now all of a sudden, the Chargers are a good team? I think we’re seeing a massive overreaction to a QB change — and it should be exploited to make money. Justin Herbert looked okay last week, but Anthony Lynn came out after the game and said he didn’t trust Herbert to get one yard in OT. He felt more comfortable punting the ball to Patrick Mahomes in a sudden-death situation than he did allowing Herbert to go for it on 4th-and-1. That kind of lack of confidence forces vanilla play calling, which typically leads to losses. Go Panthers here.
PICKS: Panthers +6.5, Panthers ML, Over 43.5
NEW YORK JETS @ INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (Sunday 4:05 PM)
Spread: Colts -11.5
Money line: Colts (-640), Jets (+420)
The Jets suck, Adam Gase is a dead man walking, the Jets have ruined another USC QB, and “Tank for Trevor” — yeah, I think I covered all the generic Jets talking points here. There is no chance Indy loses this game. An 11.5-point spread might be alarming to some, but I have good news: since drafting Sam Darnold in 2018, the Jets are 12-21-1 against the spread, which is the worst in the NFL. The odds aren’t great, but take the easy money with the Colts, and take the under because the Jets can’t score.
PICKS: Colts -11.5, Colts ML, Under 44
DALLAS COWBOYS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Spread: Seahawks -5
Money line: Seahawks (-225), Cowboys (+185)
I was hoping for a bigger Vegas overreaction to the Cowboys’ comeback win against Atlanta last weekend. Ultimately, when the game is close, I trust Russell Wilson more than Dak Prescott, and I think that Seattle comes out ahead, but I like Dallas to cover.
PICKS: Cowboys +5, Seahawks ML, Under 57
DETROIT LIONS @ ARIZONA CARDINALS (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Spread: Cardinals -6
Money line: Cardinals (-250), Lions (+210)
I have been saying since the beginning of the year that the Cardinals were my dark horse pick to win the NFC West, and so far, they’ve made me look pretty smart. Keep riding Kyler to free money.
PICKS: Cardinals -6, Cardinals ML, Over 55
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS @ DENVER BRONCOS (Sunday 4:25 PM)
Spread: Bucs -6
Money line: Bucs (-250), Broncos (+210)
Before Courtland Sutton and Drew Lock got hurt last week, I would’ve circled this as an interesting match-up. I thought the Broncos had a lot of upside this year, but I think Lock’s absence is going to ruin any shot they had of winning this game. Bucs win, and win easy.
PICKS: Bucs -6, Bucs ML, Over 42.5
GREEN BAY PACKERS @ NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (Sunday 8:20 PM)
Spread: Saints -3
Money line: Saints (-150), Packers (+130)
If the Saints were starting Jameis Winston instead of that noodle-armed, dome-dependent midget, I would pick them to win this game. That said, Drew Brees is going to neglect to acknowledge his daughter once again and lace them up for Sunday Night Football. I have said all season that this year has an Aaron Rodgers revenge tour-type feel to hit, and I just don’t see that stopping this week. Look for a big game from the two Aarons in Green & Yellow, and a Packers win.
PICKS: Packers +3, Packers ML, Over 53
I will have an updated record and a special Chiefs-Ravens MNF special up for you on Monday morning.