A less than stellar Week 1 is in the books. Although I have definitely had worse weeks, not the ideal start to the NFL season, with Vegas getting the upper hand.
We will be better:
After some feedback, I realize there might be some people who are new to gambling, and I just wanted to give a better explanation of how I am tracking my wins and losses. Record is self-explanatory, just a simple tracking of wins losses and ties. For Week 1 I was 20-23-2. The ties are something like what happened in the Chargers/Bengals game. I picked the Charges -3, they won by exactly 3, so that registers as a tie/no bet.
The more complex way of tracking is with units. Units are just a universal way to track net gain/loss without factoring in $ amounts. If I bet $50 a game, and you bet $5 a game, my wins and losses are going to be way more drastic than yours because I’m betting 10x more. This is where units come into play, and we simply track it as we each bet 1 unit.
Ex: We both bet on the Ravens -8. The Ravens covered. My net win would be $45.45, yours would be $4.45. Broken down into units we would both be +0.91.
Using units just takes the original bet amount out of play, and is an easier way to compare how well you’ve done against someone who may bet significantly more or less than you. Not to plug potential competitors, but The Action Network has a pretty good tool for breaking down your exact winnings by dollar amount here. Also a pretty good tool to mess around with if you’re not very seasoned in reading odds and are curious about payouts before you submit a wager. (https://www.actionnetwork.com/betting-calculators/betting-odds-calculator).
YEAR TO DATE:
*all below lines based on Bovada (bovada.lv) 9/16*
CINCINNATI BENGALS @ CLEVELAND BROWNS (Thursday 8:20pm)
Spread: Browns -6 (-105), Bengals +6 (-115)
Money line: Browns -245, Bengals +205
Bengals are coming off a somewhat impressive showing against a Chargers team, while the Browns are coming off a merciless beat down at the hands of the Ravens. Former #1 pick Baker Mayfield looks lost, current #1 pick Joe Burrow looks like he has some real potential. Looking back at the last 4 matchups, the Browns are 3-1 and the lowest point total in those 4 games was 44. The interesting thing to me here is despite how bad the Bengals have been the past few years, since 2018 they are 10-5-1 against the spread as the away team. I think the Browns ultimately win, but I don’t think they cover.
PICKS: Bengals +6, Browns ML, Over 43.5
Look for my picks on Sunday’s action to go up Friday or Saturday, and let’s hope Week 2 is better than Week 1.