NFL WEEK 1 PICKS

We’re finally here. The NFL season is a little over 24 hours away. A full slate of games Sunday and the lack of preseason games is just adding to the anticipation. I am going to go through game by game and give my personal picks. I am making these on Wednesday, with the Wednesday lines. I think it is important to note that things can change a lot between now and kick off and Sunday, and the first rule of gambling is always make your decisions based on the most up to date information available. (All odds based on Bovada 9/9)

CHICAGO BEARS @ DETROIT LIONS (Sunday 1:00 PM)

Spread: Lions -3

Money Line: Lions -150, Bears +130

O/U: 44

I’m going to keep this short, Mitch Trubisky sucks, Matthew Stafford hasn’t played in a year, and I am so happy my Ravens are playing at the same time so I can have an excuse to not watch this game. I think the Bears win in a low scoring game.

PICKS: Lions -3, Lions ML, U 44

CLEVELAND BROWNS @ BALTIMORE RAVENS (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Ravens -8

Money line: Ravens -360, Browns +280

 O/U: 48.5

I am incredibly salty my PSL got cancelled due to the Ravens not having fans this year. I always want an excuse to throw on purple camo pants, drink at 9am and not be judged for it. I think the Ravens win this game in an absolute blood bath. They’ve improved the front 7 which should negate Chubb/Hunt, and the secondary is still one of the best in the league. I look for the Ravens to avenge their ugly Week 4 loss at home last year.

PICKS: Ravens -8, Ravens ML, Over 48.5

GREEN BAY PACKERS @ MINNESOTA VIKINGS (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Vikings -2.5

Money line: Vikings -145, Packers +125

O/U: 45.5

This is the best matchup of the 1pm games. Vikings added Yannick to beef up the pass rush but lost Diggs in the offseason. The Vikings are the Vegas favorite, but this game screams last minute Aaron Rodgers TD to win it.

PICKS: Packers +2.5, Packers ML, Over 45.5

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS @ JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Colts -8

Money line: Colts -420, Jaguars +310

O/U: 45

Jaguars are tanking. Colts win easy. That’s it, that’s the analysis

PICKS: Colts- 8, Colts ML, Under 45

Las Vegas Raiders @ Carolina Panthers (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Raiders -3

Money line: Raiders -170, Panthers +150

O/U: 47.5

I am a big Teddy Bridgewater guy. I think when you pair him with a guy like CMac and let him be a game manager; he is good enough to not cost you games. I think the Panthers are the kind of team that could surprise people this year. Vegas is showing some home town bias, so cash in on that.

PICKS: Panthers +3, Panthers ML, Under 47.5

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: NE -6.5

Money line: New England -300, Miami +250

O/U: 43

Every week there’s a handful of games I look at and see free money, this is one of them. I am going heavy against the Pats and the over. Bill Belichick is missing a lot of key pieces from his defense, Josh McDaniel has never succeeded as an OC with anyone but Tom Brady at QB and Brian Flores knows this all too well. I think the Pats are still a 9 or 10 win team, but I also think this is the kind of team that is going to come out slow and gel later in the season. Also what is week 1 without some Fitzmagic?

PICKS: Dolphins +6.5, Dolphins ML, Over 43

New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Bills -6.5

Money line: Bills -300, Jets +250

O/U: 39.5

There is no doubt in my mind the Bills win this game. The real questions come down to Josh Allen and Sam Darnold. Both come in with a ton of potential and a ton to prove in year 3. The Bills defense is good enough to give Darnold problems, and I think that is ultimately why the Bills win easily.

PICKS: Bills -6.5, Bills ML, Over 39.5

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES @ WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Eagles -6

Money line: Eagles -250, Football Team +210

O/U: 42.5

Not much to be said here, Washington is still mid rebuild and the Eagles are a playoff contender.

PICKS: Eagles -6, Eagles ML, Over 42.5

Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons (Sunday 1:00pm)

Spread: Seahawks -2

Money line: Seahawks -135, Falcons +115

O/U: 49

This matchup is pretty interesting to me. The Seahawks tend to get themselves in these early season shoot outs against teams they should easily beat, then have big showings against good competition. I struggle to decide which one of those Atlanta falls under. They have a stacked offense, and an average defense, but just seem to lack that ability to put it all together when it counts. My gut says take the Seahawks here.

PICKS: Seahawks -2, Seahawks ML, Under 49

Los Angeles Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday 4:05pm)

Spread: Chargers -3

Money line: Chargers -170, Bengals +150

O/U: 43

Its hard to bet against Burrow after watching him in college last year. Local kid coming home to rescue his struggling childhood team would be a cool feel good story. But, you have to remember, they’re the Bengals. The good news for Joe is that if he survives year 1 the Bengals are going to have another high pick to build around him with.

PICKS: Chargers -3, Chargers ML, Over 43

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (Sunday 4:25pm)

Spread: 49ers -7

Money line: 49ers -320, Cardinals +260

O/U: 48

Kyler Murray coming out party starts at 4:25pm on Sunday. I am big on the Cardinals this year, and I think Vegas has given us an opportunity to win big here. The 49ers are a good team, but as you saw in the SB they can be beat by a high powered offense, and I think that’s what you’re going to see out of the Cardinals this year.

PICKS: Cardinals +7, Cardinals ML, Over 48

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (Sunday 4:25pm)

Spread: Saints -3.5

Money line: Saints -175, Bucs +155

O/U: 49

I think the Bucs have shades of the Browns last year. Mike Evans is already listed on the injury report, Brady was mediocre at best last year, Gronk hasn’t played in a year, their defense still has questions. I think this is going to be a rough week for the Brady fanboys watching his first game in Tampa.

PICKS: Saints -3.5, Saints ML, Over 49

Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (Sunday 8:20pm)

Spread: Cowboys -3

Money line: Cowboys -150, Rams +130

O/U: 52

I think this is going to be game 1 of the Dak Prescott “Pay Me Jerry” tour. The Rams aren’t an easy opponent by any means, but I think the Cowboys win this game handily.

PICKS: Cowboys -3, Cowboys ML, Over 52

I am going to put out a separate blog with picks for MNF on Sunday night/Monday morning with an updated record for the year. I want to keep great track of how much money I am making local bookies in 2020.

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