Fantasy Football: Dynasty Buy, Sell and Hold

Welcome to my very first – and possibly last, after Mike reads it – article I’ve ever written. Today we’ll be detailing some dynasty hold, buy, and sell options. Some of these will possibly shock you. Some of you will be triggered by a couple, and that’s okay. Just here to make you think. In regards to the “hold” players they may not be your typical concept. A couple of them are guys I’d think about selling based on market value and potential future outcomes and I want to see what pans out.

Writer’s Note: Assume all scenarios are 12 team, Point Per Reception (PPR), superflex unless otherwise stated. DTC = Dynasty trade calculator

Dynasty Trade Calculator (DTC) is one of my go to sources for gauging the market on values at any moment. It’s only $15 a year and is well worth the investment if you are even slightly serious about dynasty football. While I don’t always agree with their evaluations, and believe that value is fluid, they have been typically spot-on in my experience. You can find them at www.dynastytradecalculator.com

Holds:

Let’s start things off with a BANG!

Joe Mixon: Again not all of these are typically thought of as a “hold” situation. I call Mixon a hold because I think his market is above the actual value that he’s provided to your fantasy roster. Last year he was valued at RB17! Yet, earned an average draft position of 17 overall and RB9 (a lot of peoples first round pick). If you drafted him that high, he did NOT pan out very well for you and probably left you in a hole to start the season. Largely thanks to his average of 8.9 points per game through his first seven games and you were very likely out of contention if he was your RB1. Right now its seeming like 2018 may have been an outlier for him. However, the good news for dynasty owners is that people still view him as a top 5 talent for some reason. He’s a hold for me due to the addition of Joe Burrow , line upgrades, and coaching maturation. This is the year for Burrow and Mixon to prove they are the guys people claim. DTC has Mixon’s value as 2 mid 1st’s and an early 2nd. You could do some serious damage with those picks. J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, and Justin Jefferson would’ve been guys in that range in the most recent draft.

Derrius Guice: I know. Hes been accused of rape and arrested for Domestic Violence. Many talented players have made it through these kinds of situations. Peyton Manning, Brett Farve, Kareem Hunt, Tyreek Hill, and Ezekiel Elliott are all names that come mind. The dude is talented. There’s no denying that. It may be a wait a year approach but Hunt is one of the hottest names in discussion right now so if you have the room on your roster he’s worth a stash and is likely free or dirt cheap if owned. DTC has him valued at ….nothing (haha) go give away your Mr. Irrelevant pick for a guy who has serious upside. 

Sells:

Going to be a lot of big names in here so buckle up!

Sam Darnold: I know he’s still young but he’s stuck with Adam Gase. Which, as we’ve seen, with Ryan Tanehill, Kenyan Drake, and DeVante Parker that may very well hamper his entire career. This isn’t the hardest sell ever and if you held him I wouldn’t blame you at all but looking in my crystal ball I just can’t see his value going up. They definitely added some pieces around him in this draft with Mekhi Becton and Denzel Mims but his surrounding cast is still very limited. Combined with the previously mentioned “makes Hue Jackson look good” coach. He doesn’t even have the benefit of having a poor defense provide him volume. They were the 7th ranked defense in terms of yards last year. He was 22nd in terms of ppg last year in a season many expected him to step up. DTC has him worth a mid and late 1st. If you can pull that off i’m doing that all day.

Zach Ertz: Trade an elite TE? But why?! Well, frankly, he’s not athletic. Like at all. If Fournette is a volume guy Ertz sure as hell is too. He is a pure volume hog. I’m 99% sure there’s a twitter account out there that states if Ertz has broken a tackle. Spoiler alert, most of the time the answer is “no”. He averages 123 targets a season the last 5 seasons when he’s been the full starter. That’s insane. Those are receiver type targets. Yet he only manages a paltry 10 ypc on all those targets with a 66% catch rate. He now has to deal with Goedert breaking out last year, his qb – shockingly – injured again, and the Eagles very suddenly basically pulling out of extension talks. They’ve now offered him less money than what they were in earlier contract talks. What seemed like a sure fire extension now may not happen at all. Going into his 30-year-old season, and being smarter than he is athletic, will eventually catch up with him. I don’t want to be holding the bag when his targets plummet and he turns into Mike Gesicki. Seriously, look that up. Yikes. DTC has him valued at an early 1st. Frankly I’d target Hayden Hurst (foreshadowing?) and a second or so. Hell you may even be able to pick up Hurst and a first.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire: Now we get into one of the hottest and arguably most polarizing player in fantasy football right now. But Tom…he was the lead back in the best offense in college history. Drafted in the first by RB guru Andy Reid. Is in, arguably, the most explosive offense in the NFL! Awesome. What do all of those things have in common? None of them are about his talent. There were a few guys whispering CEH may be the best professional rb coming out of the draft (how?) but i’d say the overall consensus on him prior to the draft was rb4/5 behind Jonathan Taylor, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, and maybe Cam Akers. Post-draft, however, he raised up an entire tier to the 1.1-overall in a lot of eyes and rankings. His SPARQ and athletic testing is leaving something to be desired for sure. Outside of his burst score, anyway. Speed score however has been a good indication of success and he’s in the 36 percentile for that. So he’s relatively small at 5’7” and 207 pounds and slow on top of that. All this combined just tells me he’s just a guy. Coaches make bad picks all the time. Someone thought Kyle Boller was an NFL QB after all. Then combine that with the likely lack of opportunity in that offense for rb (they don’t run the ball much at all and only had 107 targets to rb last year). CEM will have to be crazy efficient to be a solid rb and other worldly to be top 5 – where hes being taken now. Could he end up being a rb1? Sure but I’ve seen him going as high as 1.3 in dynasty startups. And his adp is 1.5 right now. In front of guys like Michael Thomas, Dalvin Cook, and Tyreek Hill. Insanity. I imagine his career being a rb2 with maybe an occasional peek into rb1 territory. For the going rate mentioned above, that would be a massive bust. DTC has him worth more than the 1.1 in 2020 and 2 very early 2021 1sts. If you haven’t drafted, trade back to 5 and take Dobbins and the extra pick. If you made the mistake of drafting him go ahead and cash out now. Maybe you’re lucky enough that you have a truther in your league.

And Finally

Amari Cooper: This is a bit personal, to be honest. After researching it more, he’s just completely unreliable. You need 3 points on Monday night? Enjoy 1 catch for 7 yards. Winning by 13 already and your opponent is done? 40 bomb! “But his ppg and production is high!”. That does you no good when you can’t guess which week he’s going to go off. He’s averaged roughly 14 ppg over his career which is good enough to get you wins in ppr, as your wr2 and assuming some sort of stability. Each week last year he had MASSIVE swings in points. Which on its own maybe doesn’t kill you but again you have to be able to predict those big weeks and that’s typically pretty tough. Half the season last year he finished a wr3 or worse and only once finished as a wr1 and that was as the wr12 in week 14. You would’ve been much better off taking D.J. Moore who scored roughly the same points but was much more reliable and you knew when his 0 was coming because he was ruled out as opposed to Amari who just stayed on the bus apparently. DTC has him worth an early 2021 1st and 2nd. This year you could have added a top tier rb and solid rookie wr prospect with those picks.

Buys:

Now it’s to make the bread folks

We’ll start off a little slow here with boring old….

Matthew Stafford: This dude may be the most disrespected starting qb in the league (until Darnold gets benched for Joe Flacco). He’s routinely been a qb1. He had a very down year in 2018 while dealing with fractures in his back but he still almost pulled off 4000 passing yards. In 2019 he was ON FIRE! He was qb6 until a back injury sidelined him. Hes’s now fully healed without having surgery, has a pretty good surrounding cast of players, and is still relatively young for a qb at 32 years old. He should have at least 5 years left in him and is stupidly talented and gifted with one of the strongest arms in the league. Hes always been a target late in 1 qb redraft leagues but should definitely be targeted with DTC having him at a mid 1st with maybe a little something added in. If you’re competing for the chip and need a qb he is a prime value target and he may not even cost as much as I listed above.

Kendrick Bourne: this is gonna be a short and personal hunch. This dude is a baller. I watched a handful of 49ers games last year and every time i thought “wow what a play” it was this guy. I badly wanted my Ravens to take him off of RFA but the 49ers put a huge 2nd round tender on him. The list of UDFA that have received that tender can not be very long. Most don’t even make it very long let alone all the way to a 2nd round tender. That speaks very highly to how the 49ers view him. With him being about the only receiver left with 2 legs he could have a very good opportunity to make a name for himself and I’m all in. You may be able to find him on waivers in a shallower league. If he’s owned you may need to “pay up” a bit because they likely believe in him as well since they rostered him but im feeling it’ll pay off. DTC has him at a late 2021 3rd. No brainer for me.

J.K. Dobbins: I cried. Like I legit teared up when the Ravens took him at 55 (RIP Hayden). This dude was in my rb tier 1 before the draft and was a lock for one of my first 4 picks in the 1st (I had 1-4 after sending away talent before and after the 2019 season) pre-draft I likely would have taken him 2nd after Taylor. Post-draft after being taken by the most run heavy team ever that produced a rb1 on only 230 touches that also sat week 17 I could easily see someone taking him 1.1 over Taylor and I may have even done so myself if I had to choose. The situation could not be better. My bold prediction for this year was that Mark Ingram and Dobbins will BOTH be rb1’s this year and im going to stick by it. Dobbins could easily force his way into the top 3 or 5 rb discussion by as early as this year. Go get him now! he , in my opinion, will cost you a huge amount next year if you let him go through this season without acquiring him. DTC says you’ll need to give up an early 2021 1st. Thats it. Smash that all day. Next year or the year after it will cost you at least 2! I also wouldn’t put it past costing more to acquire him than say someone like Zeke in a year or two. Dude is gonna smash!

And for the ending of my first ever article…

Hayden Hurst: This dude is a former 1st round pick that was bought for a second rounder. That’s high capital for both drafting and trading. Two teams invested very highly in him so that has to be promising. He was unfortunately hampered by injury his rookie year and that lead to the breakout of Mark Andrews and Hurst’s slide down the depth chart. People always said “no way they get much for a 3rd string TE”. I tried telling them the ravens wouldn’t take less than a mid 2nd and here we are. Due to the type of offense the Ravens play Nick Boyle is always gonna have a higher snap percentage than any other TE but he’s a TE in name only. Dude is an all-pro blocker and that’s his role. That left Hurst to get the scraps of limited passing opportunities as the 3rd receiving option down the stretch behind Marquise Brown, aka Hollywood, and Mandrews in a run first offense. But when he got the chance he balled out. Fast forward to today and he’s in the most pass happy offense in the league that peppered te’s with targets throughout Matt Ryan’s career. I’m not a huge “vacated targets” guy because you have to have the talent to demand those targets but Hurst absolutely fits the bill in that regard. Austin Hooper was nothing special as an athlete but produced when he played in that offense. I see no reason why Hurst won’t be a te1 and push for top 5 te into the discussion of an actual te1 and not the scrap dung pile that is te6-349. DTC has him at a mid 2nd rd asset and I’m smashing that if I need of a te which let’s be honest anyone who doesn’t have Travis Kelce, George Kittle, or Andrews should be.

Oh, you’ve stuck around this far? Lucky you! BONUS IDP BUY  PICKS!

DL: Chandler Jones. Dude is old but is a steady contributor

LB: Darius Leonard. Im pretty sure DTC has him as worth a 1st rd pick and he’s absolutely worth it. Dude is a monster and should be for a while. In a rookie draft you’re taking him in the 1st all day anyway.

DB: Tracy Walker. Young guy that came out and put up monster numbers at the safety position which historically has been the more predictable and profitable DB group to be in. Get him and plug him in every week for the next 5+ years

Thanks for hanging around this long and partaking in the ramblings of a totally amateur writer and fantasy player. Take this advice and win your league…or don’t. Your choice. Take care and enjoy the break from chaos that 2020 has been so far in this football season.

Leave a Reply