With the NFL season being just a week away, this is the perfect time to throw in some futures and pray they work out. This will not be a season outlook/prediction blog for every NFL team, but just more of a highlight of some of the more interesting picks that offer some higher payouts (All odds based on Bovada 9/4)
I’m going to highlight two interesting value picks here. You typically can’t parlay future props, so putting down any kind of money on anything near even money just to wait five months for a payout isn’t really worth it.
AFC SOUTH: Interesting division that is always decided by a few late season head to head games. Jacksonville is in full tank mode, which leaves Indianapolis, Houston and Tennessee as viable choices. Vegas has Indy as the favorite to win the division, but my pick here is going to be Houston. Despite some questionable offseason moves, the Texans are still in a solid position to win the division, and at +325 you’re getting a very good payout. PICK: Texans (+325)
NFC WEST: The NFC West is arguably the best division in football from top to bottom, and I think gives you the best odds to hit on a heavy underdog with a legitimate chance to win. Although I think Vegas has fairly named the 49ers as the favorite to repeat as division champs, your value lies with Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals. With the massive additions of DeAndre Hopkins and Isaiah Simmons and a pretty promising rookie campaign from Kyler Murray, I think the Cardinals are good enough to compete and win the division. PICK: Cardinals (+600)
YEAR END AWARDS:
Betting on some long shots to win year end awards is always a low risk, high reward investment to make. I don’t recommend burning money and just throwing it at crazy long shots, but there are smart picks that could end up paying out come the end of the season.
AP Coach of the Year: Typically I don’t bet on Coach of the Year, but in the spirit of sticking with my Cardinals pick for the NFC West, I think Kliff Kingsbury is a very good investment here. Coach of the Year isn’t really the best way to describe this award, its more like “Coach who’s team beats expectations by the most” and I think if the Cardinals are able to take that big leap forward and win the NFC West there is no way Kingsbury doesn’t win CoY. PICK: Kliff Kingsbury (+1500)
AP Comeback Player of the Year: I’m going to keep this one short and sweet. Nobody likes giving J.J. Watt attention and awards more than the media, and if he plays 16 games and even puts up 75% of the production he has in the past, he will win this award easily. PICK: JJ Watt (+725)
AP Most Valuable Player: There has not been a repeat MVP since 2008/2009 with Peyton Manning, and as much as I want to be a homer and say Lamar Jackson will do it, I just don’t think that will happen. This is probably the biggest long shot I’ll post, but following the trend here, I think Drew Lock is the biggest long shot with the most legitimate chance to win. The last two MVP’s have been 2nd year QB’s in their first full year of starting, and the Broncos have gone all in on adding weapons for Drew Lock to succeed. If someone wrote Lamar Jackson was going to be the 2019 Unanimous MVP in early September of last year just remember you’d probably have laughed as hard at that as you are at the Drew Lock suggestion. PICK: Drew Lock (+3000)
I personally do not put a ton of money into these long term playoff futures because of injuries, but I saw a few interesting ones I felt were worth mentioning.
NFC Champions: There are two teams here that I think are very undervalued. First is the Vikings at +1200, second is the Packers at +1300. Although injuries can change everything, right now it’s not hard to see either one of these teams at least being in a position to win the NFC, and at 12/1 or 13/1 odds its hard to turn that down. Don’t go crazy, but definitely solid value there
Super Bowl: Ravens. That is all. PICK: Ravens (+650)
Next Wednesday I will be posting my Week 1 picks. That is when the real fun will begin. I look forward to making you or your bookies very rich this year.